Yield Curve 10yr - 3mo
Best-documented curve predictor. Inversion means short rates sit above long rates.
FRED T10Y3M - 2026-11-03
+0.74%
NORMALIZED
US Market & Recession Watch
A three-lens dashboard tracking recession risk, market froth, and price-trend confirmation.
Generated 2026-11-03 18:30 EST - Macro latest 2026-11-03 - Labor latest 2026-10-24 - Price latest 2026-11-02
Current Market Read
Economy green - Froth low - Price trend yellow
Recession risk: green. Price trend: yellow. Froth: low.
Lens 1 - Recession risk: GREEN. Yield curve, Sahm Rule, credit spreads, ISM, LEI, weekly claims, recession-probability, and GDPNow growth-pulse inputs are read together; valuation and GDPNow are guardrails, not standalone recession triggers.
Lens 2 - Market-peak froth: LOW. 9 of 10 inputs usable; at least 8 are required for a score. Missing and stale values are excluded, never treated as benign.
Lens 3 - Price trend: YELLOW. The S&P 500 is below its 50-day SMA and the 50-day SMA is above the 150-day SMA.
Signal Map - 2006 to Latest
Retrospective context using revised data and selected historical episodes. This map is not a backtest of live alerts.
S&P 500 Signal Map - 2006 to Latest
Monthly S&P 500 values on a log scale from Multpl S&P 500 monthly average closes (not month-end closes). Latest plotted point appended from fresh FRED SP500 daily close. Red bands are retrospectively dated NBER recessions; hatching uses revised curve/Sahm observations. Historical gold markers are reviewed episodes, without reconstructed Lens 2 scores.
NBER recession months (retrospective)
Curve/Sahm thresholds
Lens 2 froth marker
Retrospective illustration, not a performance backtest. Red bands use subsequently known NBER/FRED USREC recession months. Hatching shows negative 10y-3m spread or Sahm >=0.50 months outside known recessions, including persistent post-recession Sahm readings. No future recession outcome is used to hide threshold crossings. Bands cover exact inclusive calendar months. Historical gold markers are reviewed episodes without reconstructed scores. The current marker uses today's Lens 2 score and coverage. Multpl fallback prices are monthly averages; the latest point is a dated daily close.
Current Lens 2 reading as of 2026-11-03, anchored to the latest available price point. The score date and price date may differ.
Lens 1 - Recession-Risk Dashboard
Leading and coincident indicators of an economic downturn.
Benign / no signalWatch / mixedElevated riskUnverified / stale / unavailable
Sahm Rule jobs momentum
Fires when the 3-month unemployment average rises 0.50pt above its prior 12-month low.
FRED SAHMREALTIME - 2026-09-01
0.00
BELOW TRIGGER
High-Yield Credit Spreads HY OAS
Clean market stress gauge; widening spreads usually mean rising default/stress fear.
FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 - 2026-11-02
3.43%
HISTORICALLY TIGHT
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Above 50 means expansion; sustained readings below roughly 48 have preceded recessions.
Trading Economics / ISM - October 2026
55.5
EXPANSION
GDPNow Growth Nowcast 2026:Q4 real GDP growth, annualized
Atlanta Fed estimate for the displayed quarter. Source date is the latest FRED update. Not a standalone recession trigger.
FRED GDPNOW / Atlanta Fed - 2026-11-02
3.7%
EXPANSION
Conference Board LEI
Six-month annualized growth: +1.20%. Diffusion: above 50. Red requires growth below -4.3% and diffusion at/below 50.
The Conference Board - September 2026
99.6
EXPANDING
Labor Market unemployment / payrolls
One weak payroll print is a watch signal; red requires repeated payroll weakness, claims confirmation, Sahm trigger, or high unemployment.
FRED UNRATE, PAYEMS - 2026-09-01
4.2% / +29k
COOLING
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
Weekly layoffs are one of the earliest labor-market stress checks; watch a sustained rise from the 52-week low. Current rise from 52-week low: 0k.
FRED IC4WSA - 2026-10-24
197k
BENIGN
Continued Claims insured unemployment
People staying on unemployment benefits are a persistence check; rising continued claims mean re-employment is getting harder. Current level is 0.1% above its 52-week low.
FRED CCSA - 2026-10-17
1.70m
BENIGN
Recession Probability smoothed nowcast model
Dynamic-factor Markov-switching estimate based on payrolls, industrial production, real income, and real manufacturing/trade sales.
FRED RECPROUSM156N - 2026-09-01
0.4%
LOW
Valuation Shiller CAPE
Not a timing tool. It predicts weak long-run returns better than near-term tops.
Multpl / Robert Shiller - 2026-10-30
~40.1
STRETCHED
Lens 2 - Market-Peak Froth - Public-Data Gauges
A signal is triggered when it shows euphoria, crowding, valuation stress, or complacency typical of market tops.
27.8%
9 / 10 usable inputs
Lens 2 - Market-peak froth: LOW. 9 of 10 inputs usable; at least 8 are required for a score. Missing and stale values are excluded, never treated as benign.
Consumer Confidence > 110
Conference Board confidence index
Household optimism above 110 is treated as late-cycle/euphoric.
The Conference Board - October 2026
91.7
NOT YET
Retail Euphoria
AAII weekly survey
Extreme bullishness is a contrarian warning. Survey date and source method are shown below.
AAII official weekly survey - 2026-10-28
bulls 37.8%, neutral 20.7%, bears 41.4%
NORMAL
Manager Bullishness
Current weekly data unavailable. NAAIM's public feed is delayed three months; timely access requires a subscription.
NAAIM
Unavailable
UNAVAILABLE
Growth-Expectation Froth
S&P 500 forward P/E
High forward P/E means investors are paying up for expected earnings.
FactSet Earnings Insight (automated PDF) - 2026-10-30
~18.7x
NORMAL
IPO Activity
YTD count -34.2% YoY; proceeds +323.9% YoY
US IPOs >= $50m market cap. Heuristic: red when both count and proceeds grow >=50% YoY; yellow when only one does. Mega-deals can inflate proceeds. Excludes M&A; thresholds are not backtested.
Renaissance Capital IPO statistics - 2026-11-03
121 IPOs / $148.6bn
MIXED ISSUANCE
Rule of 20
As-reported P/E 25.86 + CPI YoY 3.72%
Trailing P/E dated 2026-10-30 plus CPI YoY dated 2026-09-01. Above 20 is a valuation heuristic. Earnings basis differs from forward P/E.
Multpl trailing P/E (2026-10-30) + CPI (2026-09-01) - 2026-10-30
29.6
TRIGGERED
Value vs Growth
126-session RPV minus RPG return
Same-source returns aligned on common trading dates. See source line for dividend treatment.
Nasdaq historical ETF close data (price returns; dividends excluded; 2026-05-04 to 2026-11-02) - 2026-11-02
+15.1%
EASED
Inverted Yield Curve
10yr - 3mo Treasury spread
Included here because inversion is also a classic late-cycle macro signpost.
FRED T10Y3M - 2026-11-03
+0.74%
NOT YET
Credit Complacency
Chicago Fed NFCI financial conditions
Negative NFCI means looser-than-average conditions; very loose conditions can show complacency.
FRED NFCI / Chicago Fed - 2026-10-23
-0.49
LOOSE
Tightening Credit
Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey
Net share of large and middle-market C&I lenders tightening standards.
FRED DRTSCILM / Federal Reserve - 2026-10-01
1.7%
WATCH
Lens 3 - Price-Trend Technical
A trend-confirmation gauge. It answers whether feared macro or froth risk is actually showing up in price.
TradingView's external widget can block some index symbols. SPY is used for live chart context; the widget requests SMA50/SMA150 by default, while signal calculations continue to use FRED SP500. TradingView controls embedded study colors; the calculated chart below is the color-matched reference.
Lens 3 Act Trigger
Trend confirmation mixed
The price lens is treated as confirmation. High froth alone can persist; risk becomes more actionable when the market also loses its moving-average structure.
S&P 500 Price vs SMA50
Price above the 50-day average keeps the intermediate trend intact.
FRED SP500 - 2026-11-02
7541.40
BELOW 50D
SMA50 vs SMA150
The faster 50-day average remains above the slower 150-day average.
Calculated from FRED SP500 - 2026-11-02
7694 / 7483
TESTING 50D
Death-Cross Check
Bear confirmation requires the 50-day average to cross below the 150-day average.
Calculated from FRED SP500 - 2026-11-02
No
NO DEATH CROSS
Glossary - What Each Signal Means
Yield Curve (10yr - 3mo)
The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. When it goes negative, short rates sit above long rates, a pattern that has preceded many U.S. recessions.
Sahm Rule
A real-time labor rule that triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises at least 0.50 percentage points above its low over the previous 12 months.
High-Yield Credit Spreads
The extra yield investors demand to hold below-investment-grade corporate bonds instead of Treasuries. Wider spreads mean more stress.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
A monthly purchasing-manager survey. Above 50 means manufacturing expansion; below 50 means contraction.
GDPNow Growth Nowcast
The Atlanta Fed's running estimate of current-quarter real GDP growth based on available source data. It is a useful growth pulse, not a standalone recession call.
Conference Board LEI
A 10-component leading index designed to anticipate business-cycle turning points. The 3Ds rule looks at depth, duration, and diffusion.
Initial Jobless Claims
The 4-week average of new unemployment benefit filings. It is a faster layoff signal than the monthly unemployment rate.
Continued Claims
The number of people still receiving unemployment benefits. A persistent rise means displaced workers are having a harder time finding new jobs.
Recession Probability
A smoothed probability model based on coincident activity data: payrolls, industrial production, real income, and real manufacturing/trade sales.
Shiller CAPE
Price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Useful for long-run valuation, weak as a precise timing tool.
AAII Sentiment
A weekly survey of individual investors asking whether stocks will be up, flat, or down over the next six months. Extreme bullishness is contrarian.
NAAIM Exposure Index
Average U.S. equity exposure reported by active investment managers. Near 100 means managers are nearly fully invested.
Rule of 20
A valuation heuristic: trailing P/E plus inflation. Readings above 20 indicate overvaluation by this rule.
NFCI
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Negative values mean looser-than-average financial conditions.
SMA50 vs SMA150
Simple moving averages of daily closes. A price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA150 means the uptrend remains intact.