Yield Curve 10yr - 3mo
Best-documented curve predictor. Inversion means short rates sit above long rates.
FRED T10Y3M - 2026-07-08
+0.69%
NORMALIZED
Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard
Three lenses on bear-market risk: recession risk, market-peak froth, and price trend.
Generated 2026-07-09 00:09 EDT - Macro latest 2026-07-08 - Labor latest 2026-06-01 - Price latest 2026-07-08
Overall Read - Froth is high, but recession and trend confirmation are mixed
Economy green - Market frothy - Price trend green
Peak-like positioning, but recession and price trend confirmation remain mixed.
Lens 1 - Recession risk: GREEN. Yield curve, Sahm Rule, credit spreads, ISM, LEI, and labor inputs are read together; valuation is shown as a guardrail, not a recession trigger.
Lens 2 - Market-peak froth: ELEVATED (~60% of weighted public-data signals triggered). Sentiment, manager exposure, valuation, credit complacency, and issuance are the main drivers.
Lens 3 - Price trend: GREEN. The S&P 500 is above its 50-day SMA and the 50-day SMA is above the 150-day SMA.
Signal Map - 2006 to Latest
Historical context for Lens 1 recession-risk triggers and reviewed Lens 2 froth episodes.
S&P 500 Signal Map - 2006-2026
Monthly S&P 500 values on a log scale from Multpl S&P 500 historical monthly price series. Latest plotted point appended from fresh FRED SP500 daily close. Red bands are NBER/FRED recession-confirmed Lens 1 windows; hatching shows unconfirmed curve or Sahm warnings; gold markers are reviewed Lens 2 froth episodes.
Lens 1 elevated
Lens 1 warning, no recession confirmation
Lens 2 froth marker
Red Lens 1 bands use FRED USREC, the monthly NBER recession indicator, as the recession-confirmed layer. Hatched Lens 1 warning shows unconfirmed 10y-3m inversion or Sahm Rule >= 0.50 warnings that did not lead to a USREC recession month within 18 months. Lens 2 froth markers are reviewed historical episodes because several sentiment, issuance, and forward-P/E inputs do not have stable free historical APIs.
Lens 1 - Recession-Risk Dashboard
Leading and coincident indicators of an economic downturn.
Benign / no signalWatch / mixedElevated risk
Sahm Rule jobs momentum
Fires when the 3-month unemployment average rises 0.50pt above its prior 12-month low.
FRED SAHMREALTIME - 2026-06-01
0.07
BELOW TRIGGER
High-Yield Credit Spreads HY OAS
Clean market stress gauge; widening spreads usually mean rising default/stress fear.
FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 - 2026-07-07
2.67%
HISTORICALLY TIGHT
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Above 50 means expansion; sustained readings below roughly 48 have preceded recessions.
Trading Economics / ISM - June 2026
53.3
EXPANSION
Conference Board LEI
LEI 3Ds rule watches depth, duration, and diffusion. Six-month change: -0.3%.
The Conference Board - May 2026
99.3
IMPROVING
Labor Market unemployment / payrolls
Coincident confirmation: unemployment rate plus latest monthly nonfarm payroll change.
FRED UNRATE, PAYEMS - 2026-06-01
4.2% / +57k
COOLING
Valuation Shiller CAPE
Not a timing tool. It predicts weak long-run returns better than near-term tops.
Multpl / Robert Shiller - latest market close
~41.6
STRETCHED
Lens 2 - Market-Peak Froth - Public-Data Gauges
A signal is triggered when it shows euphoria, crowding, valuation stress, or complacency typical of market tops.
~60%
weighted froth signals triggered
In line with levels that deserve discipline and position-risk review. Froth without recession or trend break can persist, but it lowers the margin for error.
Consumer Confidence > 110
Conference Board confidence index
The Conference Board - June 2026
91.2
NOT YET
Retail Euphoria
AAII bull-bear sentiment survey
YCharts / AAII - Jul 02 2026
bulls 31.4%, bears 42.3%, neutral 26.4%
NORMAL
Manager Bullishness
NAAIM active-manager equity exposure
YCharts / NAAIM - Jul 01 2026
84.7
HIGH
Growth-Expectation Froth
S&P 500 forward P/E
FactSet Earnings Insight - 2026-06-26
~20.1x
TRIGGERED
Deal & IPO Froth
M&A + IPO issuance volume
J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley capital markets commentary - 2026-06-18
Elevated 2026 issuance
ELEVATED
Rule of 20
P/E + CPI
FactSet Earnings Insight + FRED CPIAUCSL - 2026-05-01
31.5
TRIGGERED
Value vs Growth
6-month RPV minus RPG return
Nasdaq historical ETF close data - 2026-07-08
-13.0%
GROWTH LEADS
Inverted Yield Curve
10yr - 3mo Treasury spread
FRED T10Y3M - 2026-07-08
+0.69%
NOT YET
Credit Complacency
Chicago Fed NFCI financial conditions
FRED NFCI / Chicago Fed - 2026-07-03
-0.52
TRIGGERED
Tightening Credit
Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey
FRED DRTSCILM / Federal Reserve - 2026-04-01
8.1%
WATCH
Lens 3 - Price-Trend Technical
A trend-confirmation gauge. It answers whether feared macro or froth risk is actually showing up in price.
TradingView's external widget can block some index symbols. SPY is used for live chart context; the widget requests SMA50/SMA150 by default, while signal calculations continue to use FRED SP500. TradingView controls embedded study colors; the calculated chart below is the color-matched reference.
Lens 3 Act Trigger
Uptrend intact
The price lens is treated as confirmation. High froth alone can persist; risk becomes more actionable when the market also loses its moving-average structure.
S&P 500 Price vs SMA50
Price above the 50-day average keeps the intermediate trend intact.
FRED SP500 - 2026-07-08
7482.71
ABOVE 50D
SMA50 vs SMA150
The faster 50-day average remains above the slower 150-day average.
Calculated from FRED SP500 - 2026-07-08
7417 / 7033
UPTREND
Death-Cross Check
Bear confirmation requires the 50-day average to cross below the 150-day average.
Calculated from FRED SP500 - 2026-07-08
No
NO DEATH CROSS
Glossary - What Each Signal Means
Yield Curve (10yr - 3mo)
The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. When it goes negative, short rates sit above long rates, a pattern that has preceded many U.S. recessions.
Sahm Rule
A real-time labor rule that triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises at least 0.50 percentage points above its low over the previous 12 months.
High-Yield Credit Spreads
The extra yield investors demand to hold below-investment-grade corporate bonds instead of Treasuries. Wider spreads mean more stress.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
A monthly purchasing-manager survey. Above 50 means manufacturing expansion; below 50 means contraction.
Conference Board LEI
A 10-component leading index designed to anticipate business-cycle turning points. The 3Ds rule looks at depth, duration, and diffusion.
Shiller CAPE
Price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Useful for long-run valuation, weak as a precise timing tool.
AAII Sentiment
A weekly survey of individual investors asking whether stocks will be up, flat, or down over the next six months. Extreme bullishness is contrarian.
NAAIM Exposure Index
Average U.S. equity exposure reported by active investment managers. Near 100 means managers are nearly fully invested.
Rule of 20
A valuation heuristic: trailing P/E plus inflation. Readings above 20 indicate overvaluation by this rule.
NFCI
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Negative values mean looser-than-average financial conditions.
SMA50 vs SMA150
Simple moving averages of daily closes. A price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA150 means the uptrend remains intact.